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Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

GeopoliticsClôture Mis à jour

Règles de résolution

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. Attendance refers to the listed individual being physically present and actively participating. If a formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran takes place over multiple days, attendance at any part of the meeting will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Marchés

Moins le marché juge le résultat probable, plus un call qui a vu juste compte.

  1. Steve Witkoff · Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    31,5%

  2. Abbas Araghchi · Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    27,5%

  3. Jared Kushner · Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    27,5%

  4. J.D. Vance · Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    25,0%

  5. Kazem Gharibabadi · Will Kazem Gharibabadi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    23,5%

  6. Ishaq Dar · Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    18,5%

  7. Majid Takht-Ravanchi · Will Majid Takht-Ravanchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    17,5%

  8. Nick Stewart · Will Nick Stewart attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    17,5%

  9. Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi · Will Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    16,5%

  10. Mohammed bin Salman · Will Mohammed bin Salman attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    14,0%

  11. Marco Rubio · Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    12,5%

  12. Masoud Pezeshkian · Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    12,5%

  13. Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani · Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    11,5%

  14. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf · Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    10,5%

  15. Rafael Grossi · Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    10,5%

  16. Esmail Qaani · Will Esmail Qaani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    6,4%

  17. Donald Trump · Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    6,1%

  18. Pete Hegseth · Will Pete Hegseth attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    5,0%

  19. Ahmad Vahidi · Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    3,3%

  20. Mojtaba Khamenei · Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?

    Clôture

    3,3%

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