Leaderboard
Ranked by the Wilson lower bound (z = 1.96) on the share of resolved events where the forecaster beat the market price. You enter at 30 resolved events, and get the verified badge when the bound passes 50%. Lead is shown but never sorts: whoever has a big following moves the market on their own.
How the threshold works
A single event proves nothing. The lower bound asks how bad the true hit rate could plausibly be given what we have seen, so a lucky streak on five events never outranks a solid record on two hundred. The average score sits next to it, in percentage points of Brier score against the market.