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Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

BusinessSchließt Aktualisiert

Auflösungsregeln

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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Märkte

Je unwahrscheinlicher der Markt es hält, desto mehr zählt ein richtiger Call.

  1. OpenAI · Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    28,5%

  2. Google · Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    22,5%

  3. xAI · Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    12,5%

  4. Alibaba · Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    11,5%

  5. Meta · Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    11,5%

  6. Z.ai · Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    10,5%

  7. Moonshot · Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    9,5%

  8. ByteDance · Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    7,5%

  9. Baidu · Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    6,5%

  10. DeepSeek · Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    5,5%

  11. Microsoft · Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    4,5%

  12. Amazon · Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    3,5%

  13. Meituan · Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    2,9%

  14. Mistral · Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Schließt

    2,9%

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