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Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?

Category
Business
Ladder
Candidate ladder
Open
14 markets
Liquidity
$86.2K
Closes

Catalog updated . Prices are indicative: the one that counts is fetched when a claim is published.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Resolution is Polymarket's. insiderz only reads it.

The ladder

The lower the price you commit to, the more a correct call is worth.

  1. OpenAI

    Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $3.9K
    29.5%

    bid 29.0% · ask 30.0%

  2. Google

    Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $2K
    21.5%

    bid 20.0% · ask 23.0%

  3. Z.ai

    Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $1.7K
    13.5%

    bid 13.0% · ask 14.0%

  4. xAI

    Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $4.1K
    12.5%

    bid 12.0% · ask 13.0%

  5. Alibaba

    Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $3.6K
    11.5%

    bid 11.0% · ask 12.0%

  6. Meta

    Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $3.7K
    11.5%

    bid 11.0% · ask 12.0%

  7. Moonshot

    Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $13.5K
    9.5%

    bid 9.0% · ask 10.0%

  8. ByteDance

    Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $4.2K
    7.5%

    bid 7.0% · ask 8.0%

  9. Baidu

    Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $7.8K
    6.5%

    bid 6.0% · ask 7.0%

  10. DeepSeek

    Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $4.7K
    5.5%

    bid 5.0% · ask 6.0%

  11. Microsoft

    Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.1K
    4.5%

    bid 4.0% · ask 5.0%

  12. Amazon

    Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $8K
    3.5%

    bid 3.2% · ask 3.7%

  13. Meituan

    Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.7K
    2.9%

    bid 2.8% · ask 2.9%

  14. Mistral

    Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $10.5K
    2.9%

    bid 2.8% · ask 2.9%

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