Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

GeopoliticsSchließt in 25 T.Aktualisiert vor 3 Min.

Auflösungsregeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.

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Märkte

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4. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 4, 2026?
Geschlossen vor 17 Std.Geschlossen
Geschlossen
5. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?
Schließt in 7 Std.
5,5%
6. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 6, 2026?
Schließt in 1 T.
6,0%
7. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026?
Schließt in 2 T.
9,0%
8. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 8, 2026?
Schließt in 3 T.
33,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
9. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 9, 2026?
Schließt in 4 T.
68,5%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
10. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 10, 2026?
Schließt in 5 T.
71,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
11. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 11, 2026?
Schließt in 6 T.
69,5%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
12. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026?
Schließt in 7 T.
71,5%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
13. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 13, 2026?
Schließt in 8 T.
72,5%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
14. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?
Schließt in 9 T.
70,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
15. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 15, 2026?
Schließt in 10 T.
70,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
16. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 16, 2026?
Schließt in 11 T.
70,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
17. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 17, 2026?
Schließt in 12 T.
70,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
18. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 18, 2026?
Schließt in 13 T.
70,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
19. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 19, 2026?
Schließt in 14 T.
72,5%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
20. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 20, 2026?
Schließt in 15 T.
70,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
21. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 21, 2026?
Schließt in 16 T.
71,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
22. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 22, 2026?
Schließt in 17 T.
70,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
23. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 23, 2026?
Schließt in 18 T.
70,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
24. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 24, 2026?
Schließt in 19 T.
70,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
25. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 25, 2026?
Schließt in 20 T.
68,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
26. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 26, 2026?
Schließt in 21 T.
60,5%
27. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 27, 2026?
Schließt in 22 T.
62,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
28. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 28, 2026?
Schließt in 23 T.
62,0%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
29. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 29, 2026?
Schließt in 24 T.
66,5%
Preis derzeit zu instabil
30. Sept. 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 30, 2026?
Schließt in 25 T.
61,0%

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