Will Russia target Kyiv on...?

GeopoliticsCloses in 25dUpdated 3m ago

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, directed at Kyiv. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Kyiv if it targets any location within the city of Kyiv. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) after the specified date. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Russia and a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket resolves it. insiderz only reads the outcome.

Markets

The less likely the market thinks it is, the more a right call counts.

Sep 4, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 4, 2026?
Closed 17h agoClosed
Closed
Sep 5, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 5, 2026?
Closes in 7h
5.5%
Sep 6, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 6, 2026?
Closes in 1d
6.0%
Sep 7, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026?
Closes in 2d
9.0%
Sep 8, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 8, 2026?
Closes in 3d
33.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 9, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 9, 2026?
Closes in 4d
68.5%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 10, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 10, 2026?
Closes in 5d
71.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 11, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 11, 2026?
Closes in 6d
69.5%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 12, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026?
Closes in 7d
71.5%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 13, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 13, 2026?
Closes in 8d
72.5%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 14, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026?
Closes in 9d
70.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 15, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 15, 2026?
Closes in 10d
70.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 16, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 16, 2026?
Closes in 11d
70.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 17, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 17, 2026?
Closes in 12d
70.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 18, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 18, 2026?
Closes in 13d
70.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 19, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 19, 2026?
Closes in 14d
72.5%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 20, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 20, 2026?
Closes in 15d
70.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 21, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 21, 2026?
Closes in 16d
71.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 22, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 22, 2026?
Closes in 17d
70.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 23, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 23, 2026?
Closes in 18d
70.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 24, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 24, 2026?
Closes in 19d
70.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 25, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 25, 2026?
Closes in 20d
68.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 26, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 26, 2026?
Closes in 21d
60.5%
Sep 27, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 27, 2026?
Closes in 22d
62.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 28, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 28, 2026?
Closes in 23d
62.0%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 29, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 29, 2026?
Closes in 24d
66.5%
Price too unstable right now
Sep 30, 2026 · Will Russia target Kyiv on September 30, 2026?
Closes in 25d
61.0%

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