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2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Category
Politics
Ladder
Candidate ladder
Open
13 markets
Liquidity
$255.4K
Closes

Catalog updated . Prices are indicative: the one that counts is fetched when a claim is published.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026. For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.

Resolution is Polymarket's. insiderz only reads it.

The ladder

The lower the price you commit to, the more a correct call is worth.

  1. Democrats 8-10%

    Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.9K
    27.5%

    bid 27.0% · ask 28.0%

  2. Democrats 6-8%

    Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 6% and 8%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.7K
    23.0%

    bid 22.0% · ask 24.0%

  3. Democrats 10-12%

    Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 10% and 12%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $11K
    21.5%

    bid 21.0% · ask 22.0%

  4. Democrats 4-6%

    Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $20.5K
    10.5%

    bid 10.0% · ask 11.0%

  5. Democrats 12-14%

    Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 12% and 14%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $20.7K
    6.2%

    bid 5.1% · ask 7.2%

  6. Democrats 2-4%

    Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $26.1K
    5.6%

    bid 4.5% · ask 6.7%

  7. Republicans 0-2%

    Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $25.7K
    3.0%

    bid 3.0% · ask 3.1%

  8. Republicans 2-4%

    Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $32K
    2.5%

    bid 1.9% · ask 3.0%

  9. Democrats 0-2%

    Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 0% and 2%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $24.3K
    1.8%

    bid 1.5% · ask 2.0%

  10. Republicans 6%+

    Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 6% or more?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $22.3K
    1.4%

    bid 1.1% · ask 1.7%

  11. Democrats 16%+

    Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $13K
    0.8%

    bid 0.3% · ask 1.3%

  12. Democrats 14-16%

    Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 14% and 16%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $16.3K
    0.8%

    bid 0.5% · ask 1.0%

  13. Republicans 4-6%

    Will the Republican Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $22.1K
    0.7%

    bid 0.4% · ask 1.0%

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