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Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?

PoliticsCloses Updated

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Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Polymarket resolves it. insiderz only reads the outcome.

Markets

The less likely the market thinks it is, the more a right call counts.

  1. 10% · Will SPD win less than 10% of all valid second votes?

    Closes

    12.0%
  2. 16% · Will SPD win at least 16% of all valid second votes?

    Closes

    8.0%
  3. Will SPD win between 10% and 13% of all valid second votes?

    Closes

    61.5%
  4. Will SPD win between 13% and 16% of all valid second votes?

    Closes

    20.5%

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