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New Hampshire Democratic Senate Primary: Margin of Victory

PoliticsCloses Updated

Resolution rules

The New Hampshire Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate is scheduled to be held on September 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate seat in New Hampshire. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the New Hampshire Secretary of State, https://www.sos.nh.gov/.

Polymarket resolves it. insiderz only reads the outcome.

Markets

The less likely the market thinks it is, the more a right call counts.

  1. 5% · Will Karishma Manzur win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by less than 5%?

    Closes

    2.5%
  2. 5% · Will Karishma Manzur win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by at least 5%?

    Closes

    0.3%
  3. 40% · Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by at least 40%?

    Closes

    4.5%
  4. Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 35–40%?

    Closes

    5.2%
  5. Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 30–35%?

    Closes

    12.0%
  6. Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 25–30%?

    Closes

    4.5%
  7. Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 20–25%?

    Closes

    22.0%
  8. Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 15–20%?

    Closes

    20.0%
  9. Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 10–15%?

    Closes

    20.0%
  10. Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 5–10%?

    Closes

    17.8%

    Price too unstable right now

  11. Will Chris Pappas win the New Hampshire Democratic Senate primary by 0–5%?

    Closes

    18.0%

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