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Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Category
Politics
Ladder
Candidate ladder
Open
9 markets
Liquidity
$327.6K
Closes

Catalog updated . Prices are indicative: the one that counts is fetched when a claim is published.

Resolution rules

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Resolution is Polymarket's. insiderz only reads it.

The ladder

The lower the price you commit to, the more a correct call is worth.

  1. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

    Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $69.4K
    98.0%

    bid 97.7% · ask 98.3%

  2. Flavio Bolsonaro

    Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $71.2K
    96.4%

    bid 96.0% · ask 96.8%

  3. Renan Santos

    Will Renan Santos qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $61.7K
    2.5%

    bid 1.9% · ask 3.0%

  4. Ronaldo Caiado

    Will Ronaldo Caiado qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $20.4K
    1.4%

    bid 1.0% · ask 1.7%

  5. Romeu Zema

    Will Romeu Zema qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $24.5K
    1.3%

    bid 1.0% · ask 1.5%

  6. Jair Bolsonaro

    Will Jair Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $21.4K
    1.1%

    bid 1.0% · ask 1.2%

  7. Michelle Bolsonaro

    Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $19.4K
    1.1%

    bid 1.0% · ask 1.2%

  8. Tarcisio de Frietas

    Will Tarcisio de Frietas qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $23.6K
    1.1%

    bid 1.0% · ask 1.2%

  9. Fernando Haddad

    Will Fernando Haddad qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $16.4K
    0.6%

    bid 0.4% · ask 0.7%

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