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Which Senate races will be within 1%?

Category
Politics
Ladder
Candidate ladder
Open
16 markets
Liquidity
$150.4K
Closes

Catalog updated . Prices are indicative: the one that counts is fetched when a claim is published.

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution is Polymarket's. insiderz only reads it.

The ladder

The lower the price you commit to, the more a correct call is worth.

  1. Florida (Special)

    Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $658.5
    46.5%

    bid 3.0% · ask 90.0%

    Spread too wide to claim

  2. Ohio (Special)

    Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $2K
    34.5%

    bid 24.0% · ask 45.0%

    Spread too wide to claim

  3. Alaska

    Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $11.7K
    21.0%

    bid 20.0% · ask 22.0%

  4. Maine

    Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $12.1K
    20.0%

    bid 16.0% · ask 24.0%

  5. Iowa

    Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $11.1K
    19.0%

    bid 17.0% · ask 21.0%

  6. Texas

    Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $11.6K
    17.0%

    bid 15.0% · ask 19.0%

  7. New Hampshire

    Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $11.6K
    16.5%

    bid 16.0% · ask 17.0%

  8. Michigan

    Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $11.4K
    14.0%

    bid 11.0% · ask 17.0%

  9. Nebraska

    Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $10.1K
    12.5%

    bid 12.0% · ask 13.0%

  10. Minnesota

    Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $3.3K
    11.0%

    bid 6.0% · ask 16.0%

  11. North Carolina

    Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $14.4K
    10.5%

    bid 10.0% · ask 11.0%

  12. Georgia

    Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $10.6K
    9.0%

    bid 8.0% · ask 10.0%

  13. New Mexico

    Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $10.5K
    7.4%

    bid 6.2% · ask 8.6%

  14. Montana

    Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.6K
    3.7%

    bid 1.7% · ask 5.7%

  15. Colorado

    Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $10.5K
    3.5%

    bid 2.0% · ask 5.0%

  16. Virginia

    Will the Virginia 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.5K
    2.3%

    bid 0.7% · ask 3.8%

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