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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

EconomyClôture Mis à jour

Règles de résolution

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

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Marchés

Moins le marché juge le résultat probable, plus un call qui a vu juste compte.

  1. 0 (0 bps) · Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    92,9%
  2. 1 (25 bps) · Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    4,5%
  3. 2 (50 bps) · Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    2,3%
  4. 3 (75 bps) · Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    0,5%
  5. 12+ (300+ bps) · Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    0,2%
  6. 4 (100 bps) · Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    0,2%
  7. 5 (125 bps) · Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    0,2%
  8. 6 (150 bps) · Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    0,2%
  9. 7 (175 bps) · Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    0,2%
  10. 10 (250 bps) · Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    0,1%
  11. 11 (275 bps) · Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    0,1%
  12. 8 (200 bps) · Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    0,1%
  13. 9 (225 bps) · Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

    Clôture

    0,1%

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