4 posts
The 2026 US midterm elections are on Tuesday 3 November 2026. As of 4 September 2026, Polymarket priced the Democratic Party at 89.5 cents to control the House and 51.5 cents to control the Senate, on $10.1 million and $4.1 million of traded volume. The poll averages point the same way on the House. The Senate is the question nobody has settled.
9 min read
Brazil votes on Sunday 4 October 2026, with a runoff on 25 October if no presidential candidate passes half the valid votes. As of 4 September 2026, Polymarket priced Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 55.5 cents to win the presidency and Flávio Bolsonaro at 41 cents, on 142.9 million dollars of traded volume. The polls have the runoff closer than that.
8 min read
Between September 2026 and December 2027 there are four national elections, twenty central bank meetings, one Nobel week, two Oscar ceremonies worth of nominations, and two world championships with fixed dates already published. This page lists them with the source for each date, so you can pick something to call and know when the answer arrives.
7 min read
On the 2024 US presidential race the market leaned toward the eventual winner and the leading poll model did not. Polymarket had Trump at 58 percent on 4 November 2024, while the 538 model's final forecast gave Harris 50 in 100 and Trump 49 in 100. Pundits produced no scoreable number at all. One election does not settle the general question, and the same market data set looks much worse when you widen the sample.
6 min read
