The forecaster's calendar: 2026 and 2027

Between September 2026 and December 2027 there are four national elections, twenty central bank meetings, one Nobel week, two Oscar ceremonies worth of nominations, and two world championships with fixed dates already published. This page lists them with the source for each date, so you can pick something to call and know when the answer arrives.

How do I use this calendar?

Pick an event with a date, check whether a market is open on it, and decide whether you disagree with the price. Dated events are the easiest place to start because the resolution is unambiguous: on 3 November 2026 either one party controls the House or it does not, and there is no argument about when you find out.

The value of a call is highest when the market is still uncertain. A call made three weeks out on a market sitting at 60 cents is worth something. The same call made the day after the decisive news, when the price has moved to 95 cents, is worth almost nothing. That is the whole reason the calendar matters more than the news.

Date	Event	Category	Source
13 September 2026	Sweden general election, all 349 Riksdag seats	Politics	val.se
15 to 16 September 2026	FOMC meeting, with projections	Economy	Federal Reserve
5 to 12 October 2026	Nobel Prize announcements	Culture	NobelPrize.org
4 October 2026	Brazil general election, first round	Politics	TSE
25 October 2026	Brazil presidential runoff, if needed	Politics	TSE
27 to 28 October 2026	FOMC meeting	Economy	Federal Reserve
28 to 29 October 2026	ECB Governing Council, monetary policy	Economy	ECB
3 November 2026	US midterm elections	Politics	Sonoma County ROV
8 to 9 December 2026	FOMC meeting, with projections	Economy	Federal Reserve
16 to 17 December 2026	ECB Governing Council, monetary policy	Economy	ECB
21 January 2027	Oscar nominations announced	Culture	Academy
26 to 27 January 2027	FOMC meeting	Economy	Federal Reserve
14 February 2027	Super Bowl LXI, SoFi Stadium	Sport	NBC Sports
14 March 2027	99th Academy Awards	Culture	Academy
16 to 17 March 2027	FOMC meeting, with projections	Economy	Federal Reserve
18 April 2027	French presidential election, first round	Politics	France 24
2 May 2027	French presidential election, runoff	Politics	France 24
8 to 9 June 2027	FOMC meeting, with projections	Economy	Federal Reserve
1 October 2027	Rugby World Cup opens, Perth Stadium	Sport	World Rugby
7 to 8 December 2027	FOMC meeting, with projections	Economy	Federal Reserve

All dates checked on 4 September 2026. Central bank dates are scheduled, not guaranteed: the Federal Reserve states that each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it.

Which elections are worth calling?

Four national votes with fixed dates fall inside the window.

Sweden, 13 September 2026. All 349 seats in the Riksdag, plus regional and municipal councils on the same day, with polling stations open 8am to 8pm (val.se). Small markets, thin liquidity, and a proportional system where the interesting question is coalition arithmetic rather than a single winner.

Brazil, 4 October 2026, runoff 25 October 2026. President, state governors, all federal deputies, state deputies and a third of the Senate. Voting runs 8am to 5pm Brasilia time, and only the presidential and gubernatorial races can go to a second round. The calendar was set by TSE Resolution 23.760, approved on 2 March 2026 (TSE). Detail in Brazil's 2026 election in prediction markets.

United States, 3 November 2026. The full House and a third of the Senate. This is the deepest political market of the window by volume, and the two chambers are priced very differently from each other. Detail in the 2026 US midterms in prediction markets.

France, 18 April and 2 May 2027. The two rounds were set by the government in July 2026 (France 24, 1 July 2026). A two round system where the interesting call is usually who makes the second round, not who wins it.

Which economic dates matter?

Central bank meetings are the most reliable forecasting calendar in existence, because the dates are published years ahead and the outcome is a small set of discrete options.

The Federal Reserve meets on 15 to 16 September, 27 to 28 October and 8 to 9 December 2026, then eight times in 2027: 26 to 27 January, 16 to 17 March, 27 to 28 April, 8 to 9 June, 27 to 28 July, 14 to 15 September, 26 to 27 October and 7 to 8 December. The March, June, September and December meetings in 2027 come with a Summary of Economic Projections (Federal Reserve).

The ECB Governing Council holds monetary policy meetings on 28 to 29 October and 16 to 17 December 2026, then on 3 to 4 February, 17 to 18 March, 28 to 29 April, 9 to 10 June, 21 to 22 July, 8 to 9 September, 27 to 28 October and 15 to 16 December 2027, all in Frankfurt (ECB).

A rate decision market is a good first call for a specific reason: the resolution rule is short, the outcome is public within minutes, and the market price is usually very confident. Confident prices are where being right is worth the most and where being wrong is most obvious.

What is happening in culture and awards?

Nobel week, 5 to 12 October 2026. Physiology or Medicine on Monday 5 October from 11:30 CEST, Physics on Tuesday 6 October from 11:45, Chemistry on Wednesday 7 October from 11:45, Literature on Thursday 8 October from 13:00, Peace on Friday 9 October at 11:00 and Economic Sciences on Monday 12 October from 11:45 (NobelPrize.org, 4 September 2026). The Literature and Peace prizes carry the liquid markets, and both are notoriously hard, which is exactly why a correct early call on either is worth so much.

The Oscars. Nominations for the 99th Academy Awards are announced on 21 January 2027 and the ceremony is on 14 March 2027, honouring films released in 2026 (Academy Press Office, 7 April 2026). Award markets have a well known shape: they are noisy until the guild awards land, then they collapse. The window for a useful call closes before most people think it does.

What about sport?

Two fixed dates stand out. Super Bowl LXI is on 14 February 2027 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California (NBC Sports, 8 February 2026). The Rugby World Cup opens on 1 October 2027 at Perth Stadium, the first edition with 24 teams (World Rugby).

Sport markets are the most efficient markets on any prediction platform, because there are more people with models and money pointed at them than at anything else. Long horizon outright markets, priced a year out, are the exception worth looking at.

What about crypto and AI, which have no dates?

Most of the interesting questions in crypto and AI have no scheduled date at all. Nobody publishes a calendar entry for "a model passes benchmark X" or "this token reaches this price". Markets handle that in two ways, and the difference matters for a forecaster.

A by date market asks whether something happens before a deadline. A threshold market asks whether a number ends above a level. Both are callable, but they behave differently: by date markets decay toward no as the deadline approaches with nothing happening, while threshold markets track the underlying number almost mechanically. If you have a view on timing, call a by date market. If you have a view on a level, call a threshold market. Mixing the two up is the most common way to be right about the world and wrong about the contract.

How do I pick a first event?

Three filters, in order. Choose a category where you already read the primary sources, not one where you read the coverage. Choose an event more than two weeks away, so the price has room to move toward you. And choose a market where you can state your disagreement with the price in one sentence, because if you cannot, you do not have a call, you have a hunch.

Then look at what is actually open right now.

Browse everything on the events page, see what other people are calling in the calls feed, and read when is the market wrong before you pick.