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Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Category
Geopolitics
Ladder
Date ladder
Open
4 markets
Liquidity
$455.8K
Closes

Catalog updated . Prices are indicative: the one that counts is fetched when a claim is published.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 , including both the chart and downloadable files.

Resolution is Polymarket's. insiderz only reads it.

The ladder

The lower the price you commit to, the more a correct call is worth.

  1. Sep 15, 2026

    Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $54K
    0.8%

    bid 0.7% · ask 0.9%

  2. Sep 30, 2026

    Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $113K
    5.8%

    bid 5.5% · ask 6.2%

  3. Oct 31, 2026

    Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $152.4K
    10.0%

    bid 9.0% · ask 11.0%

  4. Dec 31, 2027

    Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $53.3K
    15.5%

    bid 15.0% · ask 16.0%

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