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Events from Polymarket. Each one is a ladder: the tighter the step you commit to, the lower the price, and the more a correct call is worth.

Catalog updated . Ingestion runs every five minutes.

164 events

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$2.4M
Open
19 markets
Claims
0
  • Gadi Eizenkot · Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?49.3%
  • Benjamin Netanyahu · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?29.5%
  • Naftali Bennett · Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?8.5%
  • Avigdor Lieberman · Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?6.3%
  • Ofer Winter · Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel?2.0%
and 14 more markets →

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$2.4M
Open
8 markets
Claims
0
  • United Russia (ER) · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?70.5%
  • New People (NL) · Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?23.6%
  • Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) · Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?4.8%
  • Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) · Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?1.3%
  • Yabloko · Will Yabloko gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.3%
and 3 more markets →

Iran leader end of 2026?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$2.2M
Open
30 markets
Claims
0
  • Mojtaba Khamenei · Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?83.2%
  • No Head of State · Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?4.5%
  • Reza Pahlavi · Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?3.5%
  • Mahmoud Ahmadinejad · Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?1.6%
  • Alireza Arafi · Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?1.2%
and 25 more markets →

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$1.8M
Open
20 markets
Claims
0
  • Yulia Navalnaya · Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?7.5%
  • UNRWA · Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?4.8%
  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy · Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?4.0%
  • International Court of Justice · Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?3.4%
  • Pope Leo XIV · Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?2.6%
and 15 more markets →

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$1.8M
Open
16 markets
Claims
0
  • Nicolás Maduro · Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?82.5%
  • Delcy Rodríguez · Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?11.0%
  • María Corina Machado · Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?1.6%
  • No Head of State · Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?1.0%
  • Edmundo González · Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?0.3%
and 11 more markets →

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$976.2K
Open
3 markets
Claims
0
  • Sep 30, 2026 · Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?1.1%
  • Dec 31, 2026 · Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?6.5%
  • Jun 30, 2027 · Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?13.5%

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$943.4K
Open
19 markets
Claims
0
  • No Meeting by September 30 · Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?90.3%
  • Switzerland · Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?5.5%
  • Pakistan · Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026?2.6%
  • Qatar · Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?1.3%
  • Oman · Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?0.6%
and 14 more markets →

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$797.2K
Open
6 markets
Claims
0
  • Sep 7, 2026 · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?1.4%
  • Sep 14, 2026 · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?4.5%
  • Sep 21, 2026 · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?10.5%
  • Sep 30, 2026 · US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?16.5%
  • Oct 31, 2026 · US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?35.5%
and 1 more market →

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$762.6K
Open
8 markets
Claims
0
  • United Russia (ER) · Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?99.0%
  • Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) · Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.6%
  • New People (NL) · Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.3%
  • Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) · Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.1%
  • Yabloko · Will Yabloko win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.1%
and 3 more markets →

Iran leadership change by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$595.8K
Open
5 markets
Claims
0
  • Sep 30, 2026 · Iran leadership change by September 30?2.6%
  • Oct 31, 2026 · Iran leadership change by October 31?5.5%
  • Nov 30, 2026 · Iran leadership change by November 30?8.5%
  • Jun 30, 2027 · Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?25.5%
  • Dec 31, 2027 · Iran leadership change by December 31?15.5%

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

GeopoliticsDate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$550.5K
Open
15 markets
Claims
0
  • Jan 1, 2027 · Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?0.5%
  • Jan 1, 2027 · Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?1.1%
  • Jan 1, 2027 · Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland?0.1%
  • Jan 1, 2027 · Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?0.5%
  • Jan 1, 2027 · Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?1.1%
and 10 more markets →

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

GeopoliticsDate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$544.1K
Open
4 markets
Claims
0
  • Sep 30, 2026 · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by September 30, 2026?0.9%
  • Oct 31, 2026 · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?2.6%
  • Nov 30, 2026 · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?5.5%
  • Dec 31, 2027 · US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?10.5%

Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$543.9K
Open
8 markets
Claims
0
  • Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) · Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?88.5%
  • Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) · Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?7.5%
  • New People (NL) · Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?3.8%
  • United Russia (ER) · Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.1%
  • A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) · Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?0.1%
and 3 more markets →

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$483.3K
Open
14 markets
Claims
0
  • No meeting before 2027 · Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?94.0%
  • Turkey · Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027?1.3%
  • Switzerland · Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?0.9%
  • Belarus · Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027?0.9%
  • China · Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China before 2027?0.8%
and 9 more markets →

United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$464.3K
Open
7 markets
Claims
0
  • 325–339 · Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?37.0%
  • 310–324 · Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?23.6%
  • 340–354 · Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?21.0%
  • 295–309 · Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?6.3%
  • 355+ · Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?6.0%
and 2 more markets →

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$454.1K
Open
4 markets
Claims
0
  • Sep 15, 2026 · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?0.8%
  • Sep 30, 2026 · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?6.4%
  • Oct 31, 2026 · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?10.0%
  • Dec 31, 2027 · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?15.5%

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$355.9K
Open
22 markets
Claims
0
  • None before 2027 · Will no listed leader be out before 2027?37.5%
  • Netanyahu - Israel PM · Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?36.5%
  • Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President · Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?4.9%
  • Díaz-Canel - Cuba President · Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?3.8%
  • Macron - France President · Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?3.5%
and 17 more markets →

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$355K
Open
4 markets
Claims
0
  • Oct 31, 2026 · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?8.0%
  • Mar 31, 2027 · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by March 31, 2027?32.0%
  • Jun 30, 2027 · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?47.0%
  • Dec 31, 2027 · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?18.5%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$351.3K
Open
2 markets
Claims
0
  • Sep 30, 2026 · Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?1.9%
  • Dec 31, 2027 · Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?7.5%

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$316.4K
Open
2 markets
Claims
0
  • Oct 31, 2026 · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?5.5%
  • Dec 31, 2026 · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?15.5%

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$309.4K
Open
6 markets
Claims
0
  • Iran Reconstruction Funding · Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?11.0%
  • Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) · Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?9.5%
  • 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium · Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?9.0%
  • Dilution of Iran's Uranium · Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?7.5%
  • ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) · Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?7.0%
and 1 more market →

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$303.4K
Open
4 markets
Claims
0
  • Sep 30, 2026 · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?8.5%
  • Oct 31, 2026 · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?18.5%
  • Dec 31, 2026 · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?41.5%
  • Mar 31, 2027 · US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?59.5%

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

GeopoliticsThreshold ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$298.7K
Open
12 markets
Claims
0
  • 4 · Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?76.1%
  • 5 · Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?4.8%
  • 6 · Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026?10.1%
  • 7 · Will Israel strike 7 countries in 2026?0.8%
  • 8 · Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026?0.9%
and 7 more markets →

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder
Closes
Liquidity
$298.4K
Open
16 markets
Claims
0
  • Lebanon · Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?10.5%
  • Venezuela · Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?9.5%
  • Indonesia · Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?8.5%
  • Kuwait · Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?6.5%
  • Tunisia · Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?6.5%
and 11 more markets →

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