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How many people will Trump deport in 2026?

Category
Geopolitics
Ladder
Threshold ladder
Open
10 markets
Liquidity
$76K
Closes

Catalog updated . Prices are indicative: the one that counts is fetched when a claim is published.

Resolution rules

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Resolution is Polymarket's. insiderz only reads it.

The ladder

The lower the price you commit to, the more a correct call is worth.

  1. 200,000

    Will Trump deport less than 200k people?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.5K
    1.9%

    bid 1.3% · ask 2.5%

  2. 1,000,000

    Will Trump deport more than 1m people?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.6K
    1.6%

    bid 0.9% · ask 2.2%

  3. Will Trump deport 200-300k people?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.8K
    0.3%

    bid 0.1% · ask 0.5%

  4. Will Trump deport 300-400k people?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $527.6
    16.5%

    bid 13.0% · ask 20.0%

  5. Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $396.6
    58.5%

    bid 49.0% · ask 68.0%

    Spread too wide to claim

  6. Will Trump deport 500-600k people?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $8.9K
    13.8%

    bid 11.4% · ask 16.1%

  7. Will Trump deport 600-700k people?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.8K
    1.9%

    bid 1.4% · ask 2.3%

  8. Will Trump deport 700-800k people?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.1K
    1.3%

    bid 1.0% · ask 1.5%

  9. Will Trump deport 800-900k people?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $9.5K
    1.3%

    bid 0.8% · ask 1.8%

  10. Will Trump deport 900k-1m people?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $8.8K
    1.1%

    bid 0.6% · ask 1.5%

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