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How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?

GeopoliticsCloses Updated

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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Markets

The less likely the market thinks it is, the more a right call counts.

  1. <20 · Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?

    Closes

    24.5%
  2. 20-24 · Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?

    Closes

    19.5%
  3. 25-29 · Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?

    Closes

    18.5%
  4. 35-39 · Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?

    Closes

    17.5%
  5. 30-34 · Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?

    Closes

    12.5%
  6. 40+ · Will 40 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 7-September 13?

    Closes

    10.0%

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