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Iran leadership change by...?

Category
Geopolitics
Ladder
Date ladder
Open
5 markets
Liquidity
$614.7K
Closes

Catalog updated . Prices are indicative: the one that counts is fetched when a claim is published.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution is Polymarket's. insiderz only reads it.

The ladder

The lower the price you commit to, the more a correct call is worth.

  1. Sep 30, 2026

    Iran leadership change by September 30?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $166.2K
    2.6%

    bid 2.6% · ask 2.7%

  2. Oct 31, 2026

    Iran leadership change by October 31?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $67.9K
    5.5%

    bid 5.0% · ask 6.0%

  3. Nov 30, 2026

    Iran leadership change by November 30?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $75.8K
    8.5%

    bid 8.0% · ask 9.0%

  4. Jun 30, 2027

    Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $54.6K
    25.5%

    bid 25.0% · ask 26.0%

  5. Dec 31, 2027

    Iran leadership change by December 31?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $254K
    15.5%

    bid 15.0% · ask 16.0%

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