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Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Category
Business
Ladder
Candidate ladder
Open
15 markets
Liquidity
$771.8K
Closes

Catalog updated . Prices are indicative: the one that counts is fetched when a claim is published.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Resolution is Polymarket's. insiderz only reads it.

The ladder

The lower the price you commit to, the more a correct call is worth.

  1. Anthropic

    Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $29K
    66.0%

    bid 65.0% · ask 67.0%

  2. OpenAI

    Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $32.2K
    19.0%

    bid 18.0% · ask 20.0%

  3. Google

    Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $24.6K
    8.5%

    bid 8.0% · ask 9.0%

  4. xAI

    Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $28.6K
    4.2%

    bid 3.5% · ask 4.9%

  5. Meta

    Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $32K
    1.9%

    bid 1.4% · ask 2.3%

  6. Moonshot

    Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $42.7K
    0.8%

    bid 0.5% · ask 1.0%

  7. Alibaba

    Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $40K
    0.7%

    bid 0.5% · ask 0.9%

  8. DeepSeek

    Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $58.2K
    0.6%

    bid 0.5% · ask 0.7%

  9. Z.ai

    Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $49.2K
    0.6%

    bid 0.5% · ask 0.7%

  10. Baidu

    Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $77K
    0.3%

    bid 0.2% · ask 0.3%

  11. ByteDance

    Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $54.2K
    0.3%

    bid 0.2% · ask 0.3%

  12. Amazon

    Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $71.4K
    0.1%

    bid 0.1% · ask 0.2%

  13. Meituan

    Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $70.7K
    0.1%

    bid 0.1% · ask 0.2%

  14. Microsoft

    Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $79.6K
    0.1%

    bid 0.1% · ask 0.2%

  15. Mistral

    Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?

    Closes
    Liquidity
    $80.1K
    0.1%

    bid 0.1% · ask 0.2%

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