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Which Senate races will be within 5%?

PoliticsCierra Actualizado

Reglas de resolución

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mercados

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  1. Texas · Will the Texas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    79,5%

  2. Michigan · Will the Michigan 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    67,5%

    Precio demasiado inestable en este momento

  3. Iowa · Will the Iowa 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    60,5%

  4. Ohio (Special) · Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    58,5%

  5. South Carolina · Will the South Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    57,5%

    Precio demasiado inestable en este momento

  6. Maine · Will the Maine 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    57,0%

  7. Alaska · Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    53,5%

    Precio demasiado inestable en este momento

  8. North Carolina · Will the North Carolina 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    40,5%

  9. Nebraska · Will the Nebraska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    39,5%

  10. New Hampshire · Will the New Hampshire 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    37,5%

  11. Florida (Special) · Will the Florida Special 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    36,5%

  12. Georgia · Will the Georgia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    29,5%

  13. Kansas · Will the Kansas 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    24,5%

  14. Minnesota · Will the Minnesota 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    22,0%

  15. New Mexico · Will the New Mexico 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    10,5%

  16. Montana · Will the Montana 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    10,0%

  17. Virginia · Will the Virginia 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    4,4%

  18. Colorado · Will the Colorado 2026 Senate race be within 5%?

    Cierra

    4,0%

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