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Iran leader end of 2026?

GeopoliticsFecha Atualizado

Regras de resolução

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

A Polymarket resolve. A insiderz apenas lê o resultado.

Mercados

Quanto menos provável o mercado considerar o resultado, mais vale uma call certa.

  1. Mojtaba Khamenei · Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    84,0%

  2. No Head of State · Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    4,7%

  3. Reza Pahlavi · Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    3,5%

  4. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad · Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    1,7%

  5. Alireza Arafi · Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    1,5%

  6. Ahmad Vahidi · Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,7%

  7. Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf · Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,6%

  8. Hassan Rouhani · Will Hassan Rouhani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,5%

  9. Masoud Pezeshkian · Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,5%

  10. Hassan Khomeini · Will Hassan Khomeini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,5%

  11. Abbas Araghchi · Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,4%

  12. Muhammad Mirbaqiri · Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,3%

  13. Sadegh Larijani · Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,3%

  14. Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani · Will Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  15. Ali Asghar Hejazi · Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  16. Ali Motahari · Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  17. Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel · Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  18. Hassan Shariatmadari · Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  19. Maryam Rajavi · Will Maryam Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  20. Massoud Rajavi · Will Massoud Rajavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  21. Mohammad Khatami · Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  22. Mohsen Araki · Will Mohsen Araki be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  23. Mostafa Pourmohammadi · Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  24. Mustafa Hijri · Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  25. Nasir Hosseini · Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  26. Navid Shomali · Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  27. Reza Pirzadeh · Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  28. Sadegh Mahsouli · Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  29. Saeed Jalili · Will Saeed Jalili be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

  30. Seyed Hossein Mousavian · Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

    Fecha

    0,2%

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