5 posts
A track record assembled from social media posts measures what survived, not what was said. Posts can be deleted, edited or quietly reframed, and nothing marks the gap afterwards. Pew Research Center found 18% of tweets vanish from public view within three months. Since losing calls are the ones most likely to disappear, the visible set always flatters the author.
8 min read
Judge a forecaster on four numbers and ignore everything else. How often they beat the market price at the moment they spoke. By how much. How early, meaning whether the price later moved toward them. And over how many resolved events. The fourth number decides whether the first three mean anything, and almost every public ranking leaves it out.
7 min read
There are six practical ways to timestamp a prediction: a screenshot, a public post, a published hash you reveal later, an OpenTimestamps proof anchored to Bitcoin, an on chain transaction, or a scored forecasting platform. They differ on one axis that matters more than cost or difficulty: whether the proof survives you wanting it gone, and whether it shows the predictions you would rather forget.
7 min read
Polymarket's leaderboard ranks realized profit and trading volume, and nothing else. Its public API accepts exactly two ordering criteria, PNL and VOL, and the response carries no accuracy field, no hit rate and no count of resolved markets. That makes it an accurate answer to "who made the most money here" and a poor answer to "who knows what is going to happen".
8 min read
A prediction track record is believable when four things are true at once. Every call was published before the event. The timestamp came from someone other than you. Nothing can be edited or deleted afterwards. And every call, including the ones you lost, is scored against a public benchmark. Miss any one of those and what you have is a highlight reel.
9 min read
