11 posts
Brazil votes on Sunday 4 October 2026, with a runoff on 25 October if no presidential candidate passes half the valid votes. As of 4 September 2026, Polymarket priced Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 55.5 cents to win the presidency and Flávio Bolsonaro at 41 cents, on 142.9 million dollars of traded volume. The polls have the runoff closer than that.
8 min read
A prediction market resolves when someone proposes the outcome and nobody successfully disputes it. On Polymarket the proposal goes through the UMA optimistic oracle: the proposer posts a 750 dollar bond in USDC.e, a two hour challenge period opens, and if nobody challenges, winning shares pay 1 dollar each. If someone challenges, the question escalates to token holder voting, which is slower and occasionally lands somewhere the plain reading of the question would not.
6 min read
Kalshi is a CFTC regulated US exchange where you trade event contracts with dollars. Polymarket is a crypto exchange, mostly offshore, blocked by order in a growing list of countries. Metaculus is a no money forecasting platform scored on accuracy. insiderz is a no money platform where your call is scored against the live Polymarket price. Money, regulator and what the ranking measures are the three real differences.
8 min read
Polymarket's leaderboard ranks realized profit and trading volume, and nothing else. Its public API accepts exactly two ordering criteria, PNL and VOL, and the response carries no accuracy field, no hit rate and no count of resolved markets. That makes it an accurate answer to "who made the most money here" and a poor answer to "who knows what is going to happen".
8 min read
Polymarket runs three public HTTP APIs. Gamma at gamma-api.polymarket.com lists events and markets. CLOB at clob.polymarket.com serves order books, prices and price history. Data at data-api.polymarket.com serves trades and positions. Every read endpoint on all three works without authentication. Only trading needs credentials and a funded wallet.
7 min read
Polymarket is blocked in Brazil. Resolução CMN 5.298, published by the Banco Central do Brasil on 24 April 2026 and in force since 4 May 2026, forbids offering or trading in Brazil any derivative whose underlying is a sports event, an online game event, or a political, electoral, social, cultural or entertainment event. Article 4 extends the ban to derivatives traded abroad but offered inside Brazil.
6 min read
As of September 2026, Polymarket is blocked or barred by order in Italy, France, Spain, Portugal, Hungary, Belgium, the Netherlands, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Australia, and it is closed to Ontario residents under a 2025 securities settlement. Almost every order came from a gambling regulator, not a crypto regulator. The reasoning repeats: an event contract is a bet on an uncertain outcome, so it needs a domestic licence.
8 min read
Polymarket is blocked in France by order of the Autorité nationale des jeux. On 16 July 2026 the ANJ president ordered French internet service providers to cut access to polymarket.com, because the site promotes an unauthorized gambling offer. Belgium got there first: the Belgian Gaming Commission put polymarket.com on its blocked list with a decision dated 30 January 2025. Forecasting the same events without a stake is a separate activity in both countries.
7 min read
Polymarket is blocked in Italy. The Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli (ADM), the customs and monopolies agency that licenses gambling, put polymarket.com back on the list of sites Italian access providers must make unreachable on 10 July 2026, with compliance due by 27 July 2026. ADM treats event contracts as betting offered without an Italian licence. Users now land on an ADM page instead of the site.
6 min read
Polymarket is blocked in Spain. On 26 May 2026 the Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ), the state gambling regulator, opened a sanctioning case against Polymarket and Kalshi for operating without a Spanish licence, and the Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and 2030 Agenda ordered access providers to block both sites as a precautionary measure until the case is decided. Spain treats a bet on an uncertain future outcome as gambling, whatever the technology.
8 min read
Polymarket is not legal in Germany. On 5 September 2025 the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL), the joint gambling authority of the German states, warned that paid bets on public events such as elections, court rulings and natural disasters cannot be licensed in Germany, and named Polymarket as a platform offering them. Forecasting the same events without paying anything is a different activity, because German gambling law only bites when a payment is required.
7 min read
