Polymarket in Germany: what the GGL allows

Polymarket is not legal in Germany. On 5 September 2025 the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL), the joint gambling authority of the German states, warned that paid bets on public events such as elections, court rulings and natural disasters cannot be licensed in Germany, and named Polymarket as a platform offering them. Forecasting the same events without paying anything is a different activity, because German gambling law only bites when a payment is required.

Last checked: 4 September 2026.

This is not legal advice.

What did the GGL actually say about Polymarket?

The GGL published a warning on 5 September 2025 titled "GGL warnt vor Teilnahme an illegalen Gesellschaftswetten". A Gesellschaftswette, in the GGL's usage, is a bet placed for money on a public or social event: an election result, a court decision, a natural disaster, a celebrity story. The GGL warning states that such offers are not licensable under current German law and are therefore illegal, and it names Polymarket as a platform where they are offered.

The authority did not stop there. On 13 August 2026 the GGL published a dedicated FAQ on Gesellschaftswetten and prediction markets, repeating that they are "nicht erlaubnisfähig", not capable of being licensed. That FAQ also says that someone taking part from Germany can make themselves criminally liable under sections 284 and 285 of the Strafgesetzbuch, the German Criminal Code.

Germany is not alone. On 19 June 2026 the gambling regulators of Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland signed a joint statement on the regulatory problems raised by prediction markets. France's Autorité nationale des jeux, when it ordered French internet providers to block Polymarket on 16 July 2026, listed Germany among the European countries that had already restricted or blocked prediction markets.

Why does German law treat event contracts as betting?

Because the German definition of gambling is short and it does not care what a product is called. Section 3(1) sentence 1 of the Glücksspielstaatsvertrag 2021, the State Treaty on Gambling, reads: "Ein Glücksspiel liegt vor, wenn im Rahmen eines Spiels für den Erwerb einer Gewinnchance ein Entgelt verlangt wird und die Entscheidung über den Gewinn ganz oder überwiegend vom Zufall abhängt." A game is gambling when a payment is required to acquire a chance to win and the outcome depends wholly or mainly on chance.

Sentence 2 then says the outcome depends on chance in any case where the uncertain occurrence or result of future events is decisive. Sentence 3 is the one that catches event contracts directly: "Wetten gegen Entgelt auf den Eintritt oder Ausgang eines zukünftigen Ereignisses sind Glücksspiele." Bets for payment on the occurrence or outcome of a future event are gambling.

That is why arguing about whether an election market is a derivative, a swap or a wager does not help in Germany. If money changes hands for the chance to win on a future event, the treaty calls it gambling, and then the only question left is whether a licence exists.

Which bets can actually be licensed in Germany?

Almost none of the ones prediction markets list. The GGL's warning says the legislator made only bets on defined sporting events with verifiable results and clear rules licensable. Section 3(1) sentence 4 of the treaty defines a Sportwette as a fixed odds bet on a future occurrence during a sporting event, on the result of a sporting event, or on the result of parts of a sporting event, and sentence 5 defines a sporting event as a competition between people under defined rules.

There is no application route for a bet on who wins a national election, on whether a central bank cuts rates, or on a court ruling. It is not that the licence is hard to get. The category does not exist.

Activity in Germany	Licence available?	Legal basis	Checked
Fixed odds bet on a listed sporting event	Yes	§ 3 Abs. 1 S. 4 GlüStV 2021	4 Sep 2026
Horse race bet with a licensed operator	Yes	GGL FAQ Gesellschaftswetten, 13 Aug 2026	4 Sep 2026
Paid bet on an election, court ruling or economic event	No	§ 3 Abs. 1 S. 3 GlüStV 2021, GGL warning 5 Sep 2025	4 Sep 2026
Forecast with no payment and no prize	No licence needed	§ 3 Abs. 1 S. 1 GlüStV 2021 (no Entgelt, no Glücksspiel)	4 Sep 2026

What can the GGL do to a platform based abroad?

More than it could two years ago. The GGL's FAQ on network blocking describes IP blocking as an enforcement tool used when an unlicensed operator does not stop after a prohibition order, and points to section 9(1) sentence 3 number 5 of the treaty as the legal basis for orders against access providers and registrars. The FAQ also lists administrative fines of up to 500,000 euros.

The Gesellschaftswetten FAQ published on 13 August 2026 lists the full toolkit the GGL uses against these offers: proceedings against operators, criminal referrals, payment blocking, IP blocking and international cooperation. It also makes one point that matters for readers: if a provider effectively excludes German users, its offer does not automatically count as illegal gambling in Germany.

What is legal in Germany without a licence?

Anything that fails the Entgelt element. German gambling law starts from a payment required for the chance to win. Take the payment away and there is nothing for the treaty to attach to, so no licence question arises, and sections 284 and 285 of the Criminal Code, which punish organising and participating in unlicensed gambling, have no unlicensed gambling to punish.

That is a narrow statement and it should stay narrow. It does not mean any free game is safe. It means the specific combination that makes a prediction market a gambling product in Germany, money in for a chance at money out, is the part you can remove. A platform that takes no deposit, sells no play currency, and pays no prize is not offering a Wette gegen Entgelt.

How does a call work when there is no money?

On insiderz you make a call on the same yes or no events Polymarket lists. A call is yes or no plus how sure you are. There is nothing to deposit and nothing to win.

The call is locked the second you post it. The time and the Polymarket price at that moment are frozen, and the call cannot be edited or deleted, not by you and not by us. When the event resolves, the call is scored against the market price that was frozen with it. Being right where the market was wrong is what counts.

Your account is a wallet signature. No email, no name. Calls go public after a delay, and followers with live access see them the moment they are made. Keep beating the market and the leaderboard shows it: Beats market, Events, Edge, Early. Bots can play through the public API under the same rules.

What should a German reader do next?

Three things follow from the sources above. First, the GGL's position on paid event betting is public, dated and specific, so treating Polymarket as a grey area in Germany is not accurate as of September 2026. Second, the criminal exposure the GGL describes attaches to participation for money, which is the element a free platform does not have. Third, geoblocking cuts both ways: the GGL itself says an offer effectively closed to German users is not automatically illegal gambling in Germany.

If what you wanted from a prediction market was the record rather than the payout, the record is the part that was never regulated. Read where Polymarket is blocked for the country by country picture, the law on free prediction platforms for the stake, chance and prize test applied jurisdiction by jurisdiction, and the comparison of free prediction platforms for what each one actually scores.