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Events from Polymarket. Each one is a ladder: the tighter the step you commit to, the lower the price, and the more a correct call is worth.

Catalog updated 2m ago. Ingestion runs every five minutes.

165 events

Maduro Prison Time?

GeopoliticsThreshold ladder

Closes: Dec 31, 2027
Liquidity: $71.5K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

20 · Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?5.5%
60 · Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?27.5%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?42.5%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?12.8%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?9.3%

Next Secretary-General of the United Nations

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Dec 31, 2026
Liquidity: $71.5K
Open: 8 markets
Claims: 0

Rebeca Grynspan · Will Rebeca Grynspan be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?32.5%
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett · Will Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?26.9%
Rafael Grossi · Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?14.0%
María Fernanda Espinosa · Will María Fernanda Espinosa be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?13.1%
Macky Sall · Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations?3.9%

and 3 more markets →

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $71.4K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

Sep 30, 2026 · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?18.0%
Oct 15, 2026 · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?34.0%
Oct 31, 2026 · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?40.5%
Nov 30, 2026 · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?54.5%
Dec 31, 2027 · Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?50.5%

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $71.3K
Open: 2 markets
Claims: 0

Oct 31, 2026 · Iran invades Kuwait by October 31?2.8%
Dec 31, 2027 · Iran invades Kuwait by December 31?6.0%

Trump meets with Putin by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $71.1K
Open: 2 markets
Claims: 0

Sep 30, 2026 · Trump meets with Putin by September 30?4.0%
Dec 31, 2027 · Trump meets with Putin by December 31?55.5%

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?

Geopolitics

Closes: Dec 31, 2026
Liquidity: $71K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Will Iran legalize gay marriage?2.1%

Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $70.7K
Open: 6 markets
Claims: 0

United Russia · Will United Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?96.6%
A Just Russia · Will A Just Russia win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?2.5%
CPRF · Will CPRF win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?0.5%
New People · Will New People win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?0.5%
Party of Direct Democracy · Will Party of Direct Democracy win the next Jewish Autonomous Oblast Parliament elections?0.4%

and 1 more market →

Mordovia Parliament Election: Party Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $70.7K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

United Russia · Will United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?97.0%
New People · Will New People win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?1.4%
LDPR · Will LDPR win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?0.6%
A Just Russia · Will A Just Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?0.3%
CPRF · Will CPRF win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?0.3%

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: in 27d
Liquidity: $69.5K
Open: 2 markets
Claims: 0

Sep 15, 2026 · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?2.5%
Sep 30, 2026 · US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?7.5%

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?

Geopolitics

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $69.4K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?3.0%

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $69.2K
Open: 11 markets
Claims: 0

Belgium · Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?15.5%
New Zealand · Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027?13.5%
Finland · Will Finland recognize Palestine before 2027?11.0%
Japan · Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027?10.5%
The Netherlands · Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?10.5%

and 6 more markets →

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 31?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 3d
Liquidity: $68.8K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

20 39 · Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?81.5%
<20 · Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?12.0%
40 59 · Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?6.0%
60 79 · Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?0.8%
80+ · Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 31-September 6?0.7%

Penza Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $67.1K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

Oleg Melnichenko · Will Oleg Melnichenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?95.8%
Mikhail Lisin · Will Mikhail Lisin win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?2.8%
Pavel Kulikov · Will Pavel Kulikov win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?2.3%
Viktor Yeroshenko · Will Viktor Yeroshenko win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?2.0%
Oleg Shalyapin · Will Oleg Shalyapin win the next Penza Oblast gubernatorial elections?0.8%

Bryansk Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $65.8K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

Yegor Kovalchuk · Will Yegor Kovalchuk win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?95.9%
Ruslan Titov · Will Ruslan Titov win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?2.4%
Alexey Timoshkov · Will Alexey Timoshkov win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?2.0%
Alexandra Kazachkova · Will Alexandra Kazachkova win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?1.9%
Andrey Arkhitsky · Will Andrey Arkhitsky win the 2026 Bryansk Oblast gubernatorial elections?1.6%

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?

Geopolitics

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $65.5K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?3.4%

Belgorod Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $63.8K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

Alexander Shuvaev · Will Alexander Shuvaev win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections?97.5%
Artyom Zotov · Will Artyom Zotov win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections?0.4%
Valery Shevlyakov · Will Valery Shevlyakov win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections?0.4%
Yevgeny Dryomov · Will Yevgeny Dryomov win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections?0.3%
Vladimir Abelmazov · Will Vladimir Abelmazov win the 2026 Belgorod Oblast gubernatorial elections?0.1%

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Geopolitics

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $62.7K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?12.5%

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of September?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 27d
Liquidity: $62.1K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

<25 · Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?47.1%
25 29 · Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?20.5%
30 34 · Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?15.2%
35 39 · Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?9.0%
40+ · Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?4.5%

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $61.3K
Open: 7 markets
Claims: 0

<35 · Will New People (NL) win fewer than 35 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?92.5%
45–54 · Will New People (NL) win between 45 and 54 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?4.0%
35–44 · Will New People (NL) win between 35 and 44 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?4.0%
75–84 · Will New People (NL) win between 75 and 84 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2.1%
55–64 · Will New People (NL) win between 55 and 64 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?2.0%

and 2 more markets →

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

Geopolitics

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $61.1K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?89.7%

Ingushetia Parliament Election: Party Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $60.8K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

United Russia · Will United Russia win the next Ingushetia Parliament elections?98.4%
CPRF · Will CPRF win the next Ingushetia Parliament elections?0.5%
LDPR · Will LDPR win the next Ingushetia Parliament elections?0.5%
New People · Will New People win the next Ingushetia Parliament elections?0.3%
A Just Russia · Will A Just Russia win the next Ingushetia Parliament elections?0.3%

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Geopolitics

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $60.4K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?31.5%

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Jun 30, 2027
Liquidity: $60K
Open: 3 markets
Claims: 0

Chiang Wan-an · Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?93.0%
Puma Shen · Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?7.5%
Kuo Hsi · Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?0.1%

Tver Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $59.8K
Open: 6 markets
Claims: 0

Vitaly Korolev · Will Vitaly Korolev win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections?97.0%
Tatyana Petrova · Will Tatyana Petrova win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections?1.5%
Igor Yakovenko · Will Igor Yakovenko win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections?1.3%
Sergey Malinkovich · Will Sergey Malinkovich win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections?0.6%
Lyudmila Vorobyova · Will Lyudmila Vorobyova win the next Tver Oblast gubernatorial elections?0.3%

and 1 more market →

Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Geopolitics

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $58.6K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?2.3%

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Geopolitics

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $58.2K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?7.5%

Chiayi City Mayor Election Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Jun 30, 2027
Liquidity: $57.6K
Open: 6 markets
Claims: 0

Wang Mei-hui · Will Wang Mei-hui win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?78.5%
Chang Chi-kai · Will Chang Chi-kai win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?18.5%
Chen Chia-ping · Will Chen Chia-ping win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?0.8%
Weng Shou-liang · Will Weng Shou-liang win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?0.7%
Chen Kai-huang · Will Chen Kai-huang win the next Chiayi City Mayor election?0.7%

and 1 more market →

How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $57.5K
Open: 8 markets
Claims: 0

1 100 · Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?83.7%
>100k · Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?6.2%
101 1k · Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2026?5.3%
1k-2.5k · Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2026?2.4%
10k 25k · Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2026?1.6%

and 3 more markets →

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 53d
Liquidity: $57.1K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

25 29 · Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?34.5%
20 24 · Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?32.0%
<20 · Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?17.4%
30 34 · Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?17.0%
35+ · Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?3.5%

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Geopolitics

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $55.9K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?6.5%

Showing 30 of 165

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