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Events from Polymarket. Each one is a ladder: the tighter the step you commit to, the lower the price, and the more a correct call is worth.

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166 events

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $295.1K
Open: 16 markets
Claims: 0

Lebanon · Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?10.5%
Venezuela · Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?9.5%
Indonesia · Will Indonesia recognize Israel by December 31?8.5%
Kuwait · Will Kuwait recognize Israel by December 31?6.5%
Tunisia · Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?6.5%

and 11 more markets →

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $264.6K
Open: 20 markets
Claims: 0

Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani · Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?40.0%
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf · Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?32.5%
Steve Witkoff · Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?31.5%
Abbas Araghchi · Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?27.5%
Jared Kushner · Will Jared Kushner attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?27.5%

and 15 more markets →

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Geopolitics

Closes: Jan 1, 2028
Liquidity: $238.7K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?11.5%

Crude Oil all time high by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $231.2K
Open: 2 markets
Claims: 0

Sep 30, 2026 · Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?1.2%
Dec 31, 2027 · Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?10.5%

Moscow Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $230.9K
Open: 10 markets
Claims: 0

United Russia · Will United Russia win the next Moscow Oblast Parliament elections?96.8%
New People · Will New People win the next Moscow Oblast Parliament elections?1.9%
Party of Pensioners · Will Party of Pensioners win the next Moscow Oblast Parliament elections?1.4%
Rodina · Will Rodina win the next Moscow Oblast Parliament elections?1.4%
Communists of Russia · Will Communists of Russia win the next Moscow Oblast Parliament elections?1.4%

and 5 more markets →

Who will Trump meet with in 2026?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $219.2K
Open: 15 markets
Claims: 0

Dec 31, 2026 · Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by December 31, 2026?22.5%
Jan 1, 2027 · Will Trump meet with King Mohammed VI in 2026?19.0%
Jan 1, 2027 · Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?32.5%
Jan 1, 2027 · Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?71.5%
Jan 1, 2027 · Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?3.5%

and 10 more markets →

Leningrad Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $213.9K
Open: 9 markets
Claims: 0

United Russia · Will United Russia win the next Leningrad Oblast Parliament elections?96.2%
A Just Russia · Will A Just Russia win the next Leningrad Oblast Parliament elections?1.6%
Communists of Russia · Will Communists of Russia win the next Leningrad Oblast Parliament elections?1.5%
New People · Will New People win the next Leningrad Oblast Parliament elections?1.4%
LDPR · Will LDPR win the next Leningrad Oblast Parliament elections?0.8%

and 4 more markets →

Russia Parliamentary Election: Turnout

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 16d
Liquidity: $209.8K
Open: 7 markets
Claims: 0

53-56% · Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?28.1%
50-53% · Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?25.5%
59-62% · Will voter turnout be between 59% and 62% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?11.8%
62%+ · Will voter turnout be 62% or higher in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?11.7%
56-59% · Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?10.1%

and 2 more markets →

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $205.2K
Open: 2 markets
Claims: 0

Sep 30, 2026 · US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?0.9%
Dec 31, 2027 · US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?4.5%

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Dec 31, 2026
Liquidity: $204.2K
Open: 4 markets
Claims: 0

Sep 30, 2026 · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?83.5%
Oct 31, 2026 · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?72.5%
Nov 30, 2026 · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?68.0%
Dec 31, 2026 · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?61.5%

Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $195.9K
Open: 12 markets
Claims: 0

Lebanon · Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027?8.5%
Azerbaijan · Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?8.2%
Somaliland · Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027?8.0%
Syria · Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?7.0%
Egypt · Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027?6.6%

and 7 more markets →

Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $189.8K
Open: 8 markets
Claims: 0

Dopropillia · Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?87.5%
Druzkhivka · Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?48.5%
Kramatorsk · Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?30.0%
Sloviansk · Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?22.5%
Sumy · Will Russia enter Sumy by December 31, 2026?6.2%

and 3 more markets →

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Geopolitics

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $186.8K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Xi Jinping out before 2027?4.8%

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Jul 1, 2027
Liquidity: $186.4K
Open: 2 markets
Claims: 0

Jun 30, 2027 · Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?11.5%
Dec 31, 2027 · Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?5.5%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

Geopolitics

Closes: in 57d
Liquidity: $184.3K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?9.0%

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $182.5K
Open: 2 markets
Claims: 0

Oct 31, 2026 · Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?1.8%
Dec 31, 2027 · Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?6.5%

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

Geopolitics

Closes: in 27d
Liquidity: $177.6K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?1.1%

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

Geopolitics

Closes: in 11d
Liquidity: $174.6K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?0.6%

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Dec 31, 2026
Liquidity: $167.5K
Open: 5 markets
Claims: 0

Sep 30, 2026 · Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in September?2.3%
Oct 31, 2026 · Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?7.0%
Nov 30, 2026 · Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?8.0%
Dec 31, 2026 · Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in December?9.5%
Dec 31, 2026 · Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?74.5%

Who will Trump speak to in September?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 27d
Liquidity: $162.4K
Open: 22 markets
Claims: 0

Xi Jinping · Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in September?96.8%
Andy Burnham · Will Trump speak to Andy Burnham in September?96.5%
Lula da Silva · Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?75.0%
Ursula von der Leyen · Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September?74.5%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy · Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September?74.0%

and 17 more markets →

Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $154.9K
Open: 17 markets
Claims: 0

Japan · U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Japan" before 2027?21.5%
Israel · U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Israel" before 2027?19.0%
Mexico · U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Mexico" before 2027?18.5%
India · U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?17.5%
Indonesia · U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?14.5%

and 12 more markets →

Pskov Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $152.1K
Open: 9 markets
Claims: 0

United Russia · Will United Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?96.5%
Yabloko · Will Yabloko win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?2.4%
Rodina · Will Rodina win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?2.0%
New People · Will New People win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?0.3%
A Just Russia · Will A Just Russia win the next Pskov Oblast Parliament elections?0.3%

and 4 more markets →

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?

Geopolitics

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $144.7K
Open: 1 market
Claims: 0

Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?62.5%

Saint Petersburg Parliament Election: Party Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $144.3K
Open: 6 markets
Claims: 0

United Russia · Will United Russia win the next Saint Petersburg Parliament elections?98.8%
CPRF · Will CPRF win the next Saint Petersburg Parliament elections?0.5%
A Just Russia · Will A Just Russia win the next Saint Petersburg Parliament elections?0.3%
The Greens · Will The Greens win the next Saint Petersburg Parliament elections?0.3%
LDPR · Will LDPR win the next Saint Petersburg Parliament elections?0.3%

and 1 more market →

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity: $143K
Open: 2 markets
Claims: 0

Sep 30, 2026 · Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?1.1%
Dec 31, 2027 · Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?5.5%

Omsk Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $140.7K
Open: 7 markets
Claims: 0

United Russia · Will United Russia win the next Omsk Oblast Parliament elections?98.3%
CPRF · Will CPRF win the next Omsk Oblast Parliament elections?0.9%
LDPR · Will LDPR win the next Omsk Oblast Parliament elections?0.4%
Communists of Russia · Will Communists of Russia win the next Omsk Oblast Parliament elections?0.3%
New People · Will New People win the next Omsk Oblast Parliament elections?0.3%

and 2 more markets →

Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: Jul 1, 2027
Liquidity: $139.4K
Open: 10 markets
Claims: 0

Alibaba · Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?17.5%
Hesai · Will Hesai be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?17.5%
Tencent · Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?15.5%
Baidu · Will Baidu be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?15.0%
CXMT · Will CXMT be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?14.5%

and 5 more markets →

Tver Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $134.3K
Open: 8 markets
Claims: 0

United Russia · Will United Russia win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections?95.2%
A Just Russia · Will A Just Russia win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections?1.3%
Rodina · Will Rodina win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections?1.1%
CPRF · Will CPRF win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections?1.0%
Party of Pensioners · Will Party of Pensioners win the next Tver Oblast Parliament elections?0.6%

and 3 more markets →

Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?

GeopoliticsDate ladder

Closes: Dec 31, 2026
Liquidity: $134.2K
Open: 6 markets
Claims: 0

Sep 15, 2026 · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 15?0.4%
Sep 23, 2026 · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 23?53.0%
Sep 24, 2026 · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?90.0%
Sep 30, 2026 · Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?91.5%
Oct 31, 2026 · Will Xi Jinping visit US by October 31?93.7%

and 1 more market →

Novgorod Oblast Parliament Election: Party Winner

GeopoliticsCandidate ladder

Closes: in 17d
Liquidity: $133.3K
Open: 9 markets
Claims: 0

United Russia · Will United Russia win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections?98.5%
Yabloko · Will Yabloko win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections?0.9%
A Just Russia · Will A Just Russia win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections?0.3%
Communists of Russia · Will Communists of Russia win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections?0.3%
CPRF · Will CPRF win the next Novgorod Oblast Parliament elections?0.2%

and 4 more markets →

Showing 30 of 166

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